RACING STRATEGY (Selections over $3 only)
In order for a punter to lessen the impact of the unpredictability of Thoroughbred Racing results, it can be best to utilise a Betting Strategy. Unless you have a specific bankroll set for your Thoroughbred and/or Greyhound bets you may prefer to use a 30/70 win/place split or use a dutching method for Racing.
In our opinion a Betting Strategy that uses specific mathematical calculations to ensure that you cover any previous losses and make profit every single time you get a winner is the key to making profit on the punt, consistently.
In 2014 our team began tracking Horse Racing Results and Statistics to work out a mathematical system that ensured that every time a win came, so did profit. We tested our strategy for two years on our own tips until we released it to our Subscribers in early 2017 and its been delivering profits ever since!
Let’s Get Stuck In…
Our posts for our Thoroughbred tips have our Best Bet and then our next 3 best in the race according to our selection system. Although we recommend using our staking strategy for maximising your profit and ensuring that you make it when you do hit a winner we know that alot of punters like to have exotics such as quinellas, trifectas etc or even like to use a dutching system. These additional selections can suit there
🏆1. Bankroll Size
Firstly you must determine the size of your bankroll that you have to spend on the punt. You can add to your bankroll but need a starting point
🏆2. Unit Value
You should ideally be able to cover the specific amount of bets that it normally takes for you to hit a winner. This will let you know how much your units are
To ensure that you are receiving the correct amount of profit from your wagers, you need to ensure that the odds are a minimum amount
By knowing at what point you normally hit a win, you can work out at what point you need to commence mitigating your losses
To be able to safely use this system you need to ensure that you are using the correct unit size for your bankroll.
Using the table below you can see how much you would need to get to the bet that you normally get a win, based on our system. You should be able to comfortably wager to Stake 10 before requiring mitigating to use this system.
🏆Our system uses stakes that are the sum of the two previous bets.🏆
As you can see in the table above, you would require $115.50 in your bankroll to use .50c units and bet up to, and including, Stake 10 of $44.50.
You can also see in the 1/2 UNIT column that the stakes are .50c, $1, $1.50, $2.50 and so on, with each stake being the sum of the two previous stakes.
You can move up a 1/2 unit (or .50c in value) each time you profit $115.50 or add that amount to your bankroll. You can most certainly wait longer before moving up as it allows you more room to have a few more bets waiting for the win if you have a losing streak that is not usual for you. You just cant increase before having the additional $115.50.
By looking at the Total Required, you can assess, based on your bankroll, what unit size you should safely commence on. If you track your bets and know that you dont usually hit a win till your 15th bet then you will need to continue on the stakes to work out your stake and spend by that point.
To give you an example, if you have $500 to start with, you could use anything up to $2 units if you normally hit a win by around your 7th bet (remembering that its good to afford to bet a few more stakes higher than your usual winning point).
Note: Its always a good idea to start on .50c or 1/2 units to start with till you get used to using this system, particularly if you have never bet using a staking strategy before. Someone who normally bets $50 win bets certainly wouldn’t be betting $50 stakes using this system. They would also be best to start on .50c units, get used to using this method and then increase when comfortable.
Also note: If you have never tracked your bets to know how often you’re hitting a win, its best to start tracking your bets to get a good idea of your stats or to get started on the strategy straight away you can subscribe to our daily winning picks.
If you have never tracked your bets to know how often you’re hitting a win, its best to start tracking them to get a good idea of your statistics of how often you hit a win and how many bets it took to get there.
The biggest reason for this is that if you knew that 98% of the time you hit the win by bet 5, would you risk your last $20 on your 4th bet? Probably not… You’d make sure you bet a smaller amount on the 4th bet so you can still have bet 5 if it lost.
Our system needs the minimum odds price of $3 for the win or even for the place. The reason for this minimum is that it ensures that you make profit, every time you get a win.
To give you an example, if you were up to Stake 7 at $1 units your bet would be $21 and you will have currently spent $53. If your selection wins at a $3 minimum your return will be $63 and you will have made $10 profit. Any odds over the $3 will result in more profits.
If the odds were less, at say, $2.50 then you would only return $52.50 and have a small loss. So keep your minimum odds to back at $3, you can use a bet boost if you like but it must be a minimum of $3 and also FIXED ODDS ONLY.
Fixed Odds will ensure that you don’t have a price drop that costs you your profit. Yes, sometimes the price may blow out but a guaranteed profitable bet beats a risky one any day. You want to be able to remove as many variables as possible. Variables create uncertainty and can leave you feeling emotional which increases your risk of tilting and betting based on frustration instead of using a specific proven method which keeps your risks low
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE WIN DOESN’T COME?
You should consider, before you start any betting session, on a stop/loss point. At what stake will you stop betting to profit and start betting to get money back with the aim to start again. There are a few options for mitigation using any staking strategy. The first would be to accept a small loss and move back a few stakes and continue on. For example if you hit stake 10 and hadnt had a win, moved back to stake 4 and continued on.
Another option is to use a mathematical calculation to continue betting for money back. Depending on the odds of the next selection, this could be significantly smaller wagers than the next full stake but will return money back only if the selection wins.
Current Spend / (Odds – One)
Yes, that’s your current total you have spent divided by the odds of the next selection minus one.
Eg, you’ve bet stake 5 on $1 units and didn’t hit a win so you have spent $19 and the next pick is currently $3.50 fixed odds win.
So you have 19/$2.50 (being $3.50 minus 1) = $7.60
So instead of your next bet being Stake 6 of $13, your next bet is only $8 (you want to round up to the nearest dollar or .50c) which gives you a new spend total of $21
If your selection wins you’ll return $28. This covers your previous spend of $21 with a few bucks over and you can start again.
If your selection loses, firstly you haven’t wagered as large as the next stake and secondly, you can do the same calculation again until you hit the win.
Ultimately your goal with mitigation is to be still betting but at smaller bets to allow you to bet for longer till you get the win and your money back to start again.
Ideally you should consider commencing mitigating when you hit a quarter of your bankroll. By mitigating when you hit a quarter of your bankroll it gives you a point where you have enough bankroll to continue for a number of bets to increase your chance of getting money back if you haven’t hit the win by then. If you usually don’t hit a win till much later, such as Stake 10, you will need a larger bankroll to use this system to safely bet and you will need a mitigation point further along.
Also note: It is always wise to watch the first few races at any given meeting to see how the track is running. If you see that it is favouring front runners and nothing from the rear of the field is winning then its wise to skip back runners. If you see that roughies are getting up in the first few races, the card will usually follow suit. In this event it is always wise to cut your losses early on a roughies day and wait for a better day to wager. If a track is running true and the ‘best in the race’ which is usually the three shortest odds runners are in the money then the card will tend to run true for the remainder of the meet.
In the event that there is a Dead Heat and you receive half of your dividend you can consider this for your next bet.
Total up your current spend with your Dead Heat return included. eg, if you had just wagered Stake 4 at $1 units of $5 and have spent $11 at this point. You bet @ $3.00 and received $7.50 back. So you have spent $11, returned $7.50 and currently have a loss of $3.50. This can be looked at as a current spend of $3.50.
You now look to see what stake would have you at a current spend of $3.50. At $1 units Stake 2 will have had a spend of $3 and Stake 3 will have had a spend of $6 so you can decide at which point you want to kick back off on. As its close to the $3 spend you can start back on Stake 3 but if it was a spend closer to Stake 4 of a $6 spend you would kick off at Stake 4 and continue on.
You can most certainly decide if the Dead Heat happens very early in the staking process to take the small loss and start back at the start, otherwise you can use the technique I have mentioned or you can even just mitigate fully until the next win, get your full spend back and start again.
Once you hit a win you simply return back to the start at Stake 1 and continue on.
Each time that you bet you should continue on where you left off. eg If your last bet was Stake 3 on a Tuesday then when you bet again on a Saturday your first bet would be Stake 4.
Please note: You cannot bet in advance with this system, you need to bet race to race. To make profit on the punt, whether in racing or sports, you need to adjust your bet based on the result of your last bet.
🔺Bankroll – Work out your total bankroll and then your unit size.
🔺Unit Size – Ideally start on .50c half units until you are used to using a staking system. Choose a unit size that allows you to bet at least 3 bets past your usual bet that hits the win. Increase your unit size only when you have made $115.50 in profit
🔺Odds – Minimum of $3 Fixed Odds Win or Place only – skip a bet if the odds have dropped under $3 and move on to your next bet
🔺Start again – After a Win, return back to the beginning of Stake 1 and commence again
🔺Mitigate – Ensure you commence mitigating when you have hit a quarter of your bankroll (this is usually at Stake 7)
🔺Dead Heat – Add up your current spend after your dead heat return to wager the correct next closest stake or commence mitigating till the next win
🔺You can also use this strategy for Greyhound betting, you just need to still use all of the rules as per above. There are often less Greyhounds that qualify to follow as their odds are often under $3 but this strategy certainly works perfectly to use, just skip any selections under $3
RACING STRATEGY (Greyhounds over $2 only)
Our Greyhound strategy is a simple staking method of double after a loss and start back at the beginning after each win if using selections down to $2 minimum.
Eg. If you are using $1 units your first wager is $1 and then $2, $4, $8 and so on till a win.
You should observe the same method of mitigation as per the Thoroughbred strategy.
PLEASE NOTE – This strategy has been proven to work if used as recommended. It should only be used with a considerable bankroll and also if you can wager race to race, not in advance.
It is not suitable for all styles of punters but can deliver fantastic profits to those who are committed and disciplined. This is not a ‘chase your losses’ method, it is a mathematical system that ensures profitability when you hit a winner, it does not suit all needs so we recommend you ‘paper trade’ for a few days to watch how you ‘could’ have gone and get used to the idea of how it works before using your real cash.
PLEASE use small units, preferably .50c units to start with. Even if you normally wager $50 or $100 bets, this is a DIFFERENT way of wagering. It is a staking strategy NOT a betting strategy. Stakes mean increasing or decreasing depending on the previous results. ALWAYS ensure you never bet more than you can afford to lose.
*Statistics as at Sept 2019