The #1 Reason Most Punters Don't Make Profit

Most punters would think its the win rate of the selections backed but they would be wrong! Read on to find out exactly why most punters don’t make consistent profit Betting on Horses…


You Can't Make Consistent Profit Flat Betting

YEP… That’s right. It’s mathematically impossible.


You cant expect to bet the same amount each time and make consistent profit. You cant just feed in 50 bucks of 5 x $10 bets in at the start of the day and expect to pull out more at the end of the day, continually doing that and staying in profit. Hell, who would work if it was that easy right?

Wouldn’t everyone just find a good racing tipster and back their tips in advance each day and just sit back and make money with nothing else involved?
Wouldn’t that racing tipster just back their own tips and not bother having to deal with anything else if that actually worked??? 
It’s starting to sound ridiculous right? That’s coz it is. It doesn’t work. Period.

Its not what you bet on, its HOW you're betting on it!

Yes, you need to have a good Strike Rate and your FOW (Frequency Of Win) should be consistently low to start with but HOW you bet is the #1 Key to Betting For Profit.

What You Need to know to make profit when betting


You need to know what your Strike Rate is to ensure that you are betting at Profitable Odds. If you’re following a Racing Tipster then you should know their Strike Rate on Win and Place bets. This lets you know what their minimum Odds would be to be generally profitable. 
For example, a Win Strike Rate of 20% will mean that Odds of $5 would be a break even amount, 30% is $3.33 and 40% is $2.50. 
One of the most important reasons for knowing strike rate is to work out if, combined with the FOW stats, how often are you getting a winner at what odds to ensure that you’re making profit when those winners come.

Statistically at a 30% strike rate that’s 3/10 winners and if bet at the right odds, you might be able to make some profit. But how consistently does that 3/10 happen? Does it come within the 10 races often? or do the wins often come in a ‘hot streak’ and they happen once every 25 bets? So you need to be able to bet possibly 20 losing bets before those winners usually come. 
Breaking bank before the 30% winners come isn’t profitable, so therefore the Strike Rate isn’t the most important factor but it does contribute to profit. 

Our Win Strike Rate is 38% and Place Strike Rate is 66% on our BOB Thoroughbreds picks and 36% Win & 68% Place on our BOB Greyhound picks.


Frequency Of Win is probably more important than Strike Rate to a punter. As we just mentioned, its all well and good to get 30% winners but what if those winners come in ‘hot streaks’ with some hefty ‘cold streaks’ in between? You certainly don’t want that.

So you need to know how Frequently do your wins come (or that of a Racing Tipster if you’re following their tips).
How often do they hit a win within 3 bets? What about within 5 bets or even 10 bets? 

Knowing the FOW means you can then work out, how often you could reasonably expect a win to come. If you’d statistically be hitting a win 99% of the time before your 6th bet you wouldn’t be risking your bankroll on your 4th bet would you?
So keep a track of how often you’re hitting a winner or ask your Racing Tipster about their FOW, they should have those stats on hand.

We know that we hit a win within 2 bets 60% of the time, 95% of the time by our 5th bet and 100% of the time by our 9th bet. This allows our subscribers to accurately work out their unit size to safely bet to make profit every time they get a winner.


You need to bet a Horse or Greyhound at the correct Odds to make profit. If you bet the right amount at the right Odds, you can be close to guaranteeing you’ll make profit every time you get a winner. Doesn’t that sound better than feeding your bets at the start of the day and just hoping to jag a few winners to make some money??? 


Most punters bet flat units, get a few winners, but still don’t have profit at the end of a day. (If they’re paying for tips and this is how they bet, they usually will cancel their tips subscription after this happening a few times because they assume its the Racing Tipsters fault.)

Some punters are following staking methods where the units that are bet are based on confidence levels. They bet a little more if they are more confident and a little less on some rougher chances. Some of the well known Australian Racing Tipsters tip in this manner. 

The problem with betting either of these methods, although convenient because you can bet in advance, is that they’re not staking based on maths. They’re staking on opinions, on chance. They ‘think’ based on their criteria that one horse has more % chance of winning. When a favourite statistically wins only 30% of the time, then any horse outside of the favourite wins less than that.
Some Racing Tipsters claim to be ‘Kings’ of the ‘Roughie’… The roughie is paying the odds it is because its determined to have a far less chance of winning based on statistical criteria than others in the race, so this is where strike rate AND FOW really come in. Will you bust your bankroll waiting for one of those lucrative, elusive ‘roughies’ to come in??? You may as well go and play KENO if you want to leave making profit to chance.
If you combine a good strike rate, with a short frequency of win, you just need to stake the correct amount to make profit. Its that mathematically simple!


In July 2020 we compared our Thoroughbred BOB tips using Flat Betting versus our Staking Method.
For Flat Betting we used 1 unit on each bet at the Fixed Odds Win price at the time of posting our tips versus our proven staking method which uses the correct stake at the correct odds to make profit each time we get a winner.
Across July on the exact same BOB bets, flat betting actually lost 8.8 units whereas our staking method won 81.15 units. And these tips won at a Win Rate of 40% which is higher than most Racing Tipsters in Australia.

So had you backed our tips using a flat unit method, and expected at the end of the day to have made more money than you put on each day, you would have lost your bankroll because even if you have a great strike rate and a great FOW (Frequency Of Win) it still wont matter if you’re not betting the right amount to make profit. Its just not mathematically possible. You do need to do a little bit of work to make money. Not a lot… But a little.

The Keys To Profit

Know the Strike Rate and statistically the Frequency of Wins, Bet them at the Correct Odds AND combine it with the CORRECT STAKE… That’s the key to profit.


Make sure you know that you are betting at a Profitable Strike Rate


Ensure that you know how Frequent your Wins are coming


Bet at the correct Minimum Fixed Odds Price to make profit. Choosing Fixed Odds is important.


Bet the correct amount on each bet to ensure that when you get a win you make profit each time

We Don't Leave Profit To Chance... Should you?

When The Sports Tipper launched back in 2016 our mission was to help Punters get more Winners. One of the ways we ensured this was to have a NO AFFILIATE policy. This meant that we would have no affiliates with any Bookmakers at any time. So we don’t make any commissions on any referral links to open accounts with any bookmakers. This means that it is 100% in our best interest for our subscribers to be making profit. If our customers are making profit then we are in business. Over 4 years later and we are still sending out profits month in and month out. 

The key to making profit on the punt is having that staking strategy to bet with to ensure that you’re punting for profit. If you’re tired of not making enough money on the punt then it might be time to find out how to change how you’re betting and stop leaving profit to chance.

We put in about two years of research, tracking our Racing Tips and testing how to bet to make consistent profit before we launched so we’ve already done all the hard work. We built out a staking strategy that builds consistent profit and we provide it to all of our subscribers when they join on one of our subscriptions so that all they need to do is follow along and build their bankroll safely.

Want To Find out how to stake for profit?

To celebrate the New Year, we’re offering 50% off our BOB Racing Tips Subscription!
BOB is our ‘Best Of the Best’ or ‘Best Bets’ Racing Tips.
This subscription has made 430.15 units profit on Thoroughbreds and 1029.7 units profit since July 1st 2020 using our daily tips and staking strategy.

(Note: This is not our full Racing Tips Subscription, this is only our Best Bets from Thoroughbreds & Greyhounds. It does not include our Value Bets, Win Multi’s or Saturday Quaddie Picks. These are available in our full Racing Tips Subscription at $49.99 per month)

This gives you daily BOB Thoroughbred and Greyhound Best Bets PLUS access to our Custom Staking Strategy that we built to deliver consistent profits across Racing. We’ll give you the exact strategy with the stake amounts to bet to build profit each time you hit a win. 
Once you work out how to bet to build consistent profit you’ll wonder why you were ever betting on horses any other way… Read some comments from our subscribers below.

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