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BETTING STRATEGY FOR THOROUGHBREDS
Value Bets are posted along with our next 3 selections which are provided for those who like to play exotics or for those who like to use a Dutching method.
We do not recommend wagering Flat Stakes across our tips but should you need to bet in advance then a 30/70 split across win/place is better than straight wins as our Place Strike Rate is over 66%
We developed a custom staking strategy that requires the ability to wager race to race and although this may not suit all punters, if you have a suitable sized bankroll this method can deliver consistent Thoroughbred racing profits.
The stakes for this strategy are the sum of the two previous stakes. Starting with 1 and 2 units, therefore the next being the sum of the previous two would be 3 units. This continues on until a win comes and then the stakes start back at the start of 1 unit again and continues on.
So the stakes are 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 and so on.
With any type of progressive betting method we recommend using half your unit size for what your bankroll would deem suitable. Eg. if your bankroll would mean $1 units then you should use .50c units. We use half units outside of the peak racing carnival period and advise via our Telegram channel when we are moving back up to full sized units. We also advise via Telegram if a days racing card looks particularly tough and would highly suggest following recommendations if posted.
You should carry over from each day to the next. Restarting each day can result in a loss so we do not recommend doing so.
In the event that you finish a Saturday on larger stakes without a win you could consider not carrying over from a Saturday to a Sunday card as the quality is far poorer. Dropping back a few stakes or starting at stake 1 would be recommended, wager as you feel comfortable.
With our staking method you typically cannot bet in advance as you adjust your wager based on the result of the previous wager. After one race runs you place the bet on the next selection. Each day when you are betting you carry over your stakes from day to day. Eg. If the last bet was 5 units then your first wager the next time you bet will be 8 units.
All wagers should be for the fixed odds Win. The ideal odds desired is $2.65 which will return a profit across the board with any higher closer to $3 the optimal odds.
Odds around $2 can be wagered on if at stake 1 or 2 with odds rising as the stakes increase. Aiming for the $2.65 minimum fixed odds will be the easiest to follow for those who do not wish to check the odds required at each stake.
For example, if you are at Stake 1 of 1 unit you could back any odds and you would make profit.
At stake 2 you have spent 3 units so anything over $1.50 would give you a little profit.
At stake 3 you have spent 6 so anything over $2.00 would give you a little profit.
At stake 4 you have spent 11 so anything over $2.20 would give you a little profit
And so on. $2.65 will always give you profit and anything closer to $3 or over is the goal.
Basically you can use $2.65 as a minimum for odds if you dont want to work out the spend and odds but it is certainly worth doing it.
Fixed Odds for the place can certainly be taken if 8 or more selections are running to avoid the No Third Dividend as this will triple the possibility of the return. We highly recommend taking the the Place Odds if they are available.
This strategy has delivered exceptional results for subscribers to The Sports Tipper since launching in late 2016 but should only be used with a suitable bankroll. Being able to wager beyond the 9th stake or more is optimal. The 9th stake is a wager of 27.5 units and a total spend of $71 at half units up to that point.
While it is rare that we reach a run of losing selections to reach stake 12, being able to wager to that stake is recommended. Stake 12 at half units (or .50c unit size) is a $304 bankroll. When you have built some profit then move up to full units with the profit made and continue on. When some punters have built $304 profit they elect to bank back their original bankroll and continue again using just profit to wager with.
MITIGATION – With all betting, having a stop/loss point set prior to betting is always best practice. A stop/loss point is a spend point that if you have not achieved a win by that spend amount you would either drop back your betting or stop altogether. Setting a mitigation point when you reach a quarter of your bankroll is recommended.
At this point you may decide to take a loss and go back to the start, go back a few stakes (eg. if at 21 units you may decide to not wager 34 units next but drop back to say, 5 units and continue on, taking a small loss and continuing on.
NOTE: If you finish a Saturday set of racing without a win an
Stakes are 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55 and so on, being the sum of the two previous bets.
After a win go back to the start of 1 unit.
Fixed Odds Win bets over $2.65 are best (bet for the place if a full 8 or over field is on offer)
Ensure the appropriate unit size is used which should be half what you would normally use to start with and increase after profit is made.
Odds posted are the current Fixed Odds at time of posting with NSW TAB but by all means use which ever bookie you like.
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